Intelligence study projects more Mexican violence, less-dominant U.S.

Phoenix Business Journal - by Mike Sunnucks

A new intelligence study looking at the next 16 years warns of continued violence in Mexico, global stresses over nuclear capabilities, oil and water supplies, a greater likelihood for nuclear or biochemical terrorist attacks, and projects a less-dominant U.S. economically and politically with China, India and Russia rising,The U.S. National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2025 report worries that economic growth will moderate and organized crime and corruption will dog Latin American economies, including Mexico.Northern Mexico border cities, including Nogales and Tijuana, are struggling now with drug cartel-related violence. Those cartels transport drugs into the U.S. via Arizona and other border states and buy guns in U.S. cities like Phoenix. There are worries that continued violence and corruption in Mexico could spill over to the U.S. border states, discourage economic development and induce more migrant workers to enter the U.S.The NIC reports also projects a less-dominant U.S. economically and politically by 2025 with “state capitalism” economic models such as those employed in China and Russia emerging as possible rivals to Western models of market economies and liberal democracies. Chinese, Russian, Persian Gulf and Middle Eastern economic models involve state partnerships with corporations, state ownership of wealth and businesses and less democracy than Western countries.China is Arizona’s third-largest export market and Phoenix corporate and political leaders have sought to increase investment ties with the Gulf state of Dubai.The intelligence projections also cite worries about how to deal with energy needs, water supplies, confrontations over key resources and expanded availability of nuclear weapons.Water supplies, solar and nuclear energy are long-term challenges and opportunities for Arizona. Arizona’s economy is also increasingly tied to international trade, especially with neighboring Mexico and the global semiconductor supply chain.