A Second Cold War with Russia? Not Likely
It's in America's best interests to regard Russia a resurgent power and not apply a strategy of confrontation against it.
It is a thought that often comes to mind, again in August 2008 during the Georgia-Ossetia-Russia war. George Bush, Condoleezza Rica and other dignitaries solemnly invoked the sanctity of the United Nations, warning that Russia could be excluded from international institutions "by taking actions in Georgia that are inconsistent with" their principles. The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations must be rigorously honored, they intoned -- "all nations," that is, apart from those that the US chooses to attack: Iraq, Serbia, perhaps Iran, and a list of others too long and familiar to mention.
The junior partner joined in as well. British foreign secretary David Miliband accused Russia of engaging in "19th century forms of diplomacy" by invading a sovereign state, something Britain would never contemplate today. That "is simply not the way that international relations can be run in the 21st century," he added, echoing the decider-in-chief, who said that invasion of "a sovereign neighboring state … is unacceptable in the 21st century." Mexico and Canada therefore need not fear further invasions and annexation of much of their territory, because the US now only invades states that are not on its borders, though no such constraint holds for its clients, as Lebanon learned once again in 2006.
"The moral of this story is even more enlightening," Serge Halimi writes in Le Monde Diplomatique and CounterPunch newsletter, "when, to defend his country's borders, the charming pro-American Saakashvili repatriates some of the 2,000 soldiers he had sent to invade Iraq," one of the largest contingents apart from the two warrior states.
Prominent analysts joined the chorus. Fareed Zakaria applauded Bush's observation that Russia's behavior is unacceptable today, unlike the 19th century, "when the Russian intervention would have been standard operating procedure for a great power." We therefore must devise a strategy for bringing Russia "in line with the civilized world," where intervention is unthinkable.
There were, to be sure, some who shared Mark Twain's despair. One distinguished example is Chris Patten, former EU commissioner for external relations, chairman of the British Conservative Party, chancellor of Oxford University and a member of the House of Lords. He wrote that the Western reaction "is enough to make even the cynical shake their heads in disbelief" -- referring to Europe's failure to respond vigorously to the effrontery of Russian leaders, who, "like 19th-century tsars, want a sphere of influence around their borders."
Patten rightly distinguishes Russia from the global superpower, which long ago passed the point where it demanded a sphere of influence around its borders, and demands a sphere of influence over the entire world. It also acts vigorously to enforce that demand, in accord with the Clinton doctrine that Washington has the right to use military force to defend vital interests such as "ensuring uninhibited access to key markets, energy supplies and strategic resources" -- and in the real world, far more.
Clinton was breaking no new ground, of course. His doctrine derives from standard principles formulated by high-level planners during World War II, which offered the prospect of global dominance. In the postwar world, they determined, the US should aim "to hold unquestioned power" while ensuring the "limitation of any exercise of sovereignty" by states that might interfere with its global designs. To secure these ends, "the foremost requirement [is] the rapid fulfillment of a program of complete rearmament," a core element of "an integrated policy to achieve military and economic supremacy for the United States." The plans laid during the war were implemented in various ways in the years that followed.
The goals are deeply rooted in stable institutional structures. Hence they persist through changes in occupancy of the White House, and are untroubled by the opportunity for "peace dividends," the disappearance of the major rival from the world scene, or other marginal irrelevancies. Devising new challenges is never beyond the reach of doctrinal managers, as when Ronald Reagan pulled on his cowboy boots and declared a national emergency because the Nicaraguan army was only two days from Harlingen Texas, and might lead the hordes who are about to "sweep over the United States and take what we have," as Lyndon Johnson lamented when he called for holding the line in Vietnam. Most ominously, those holding the reins may actually believe their own words.
Returning to the efforts to elevate Russia to the civilized world, the seven charter members of the Group of Eight industrialized countries issued a statement "condemning the action of our fellow G8 member," Russia, which has yet to comprehend the Anglo-American commitment to non-intervention. The European Union held a rare emergency meeting to condemn Russia's crime, its first meeting since the invasion of Iraq, which elicited no condemnation.
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